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Subscriptions
Rebill cash that actually approves, and a retry calendar that does not trash MIDs.
Subscription CAC from surviving cycles
CalculatorFirst-order product margin plus the rebills that remain after drop-off. Day 60 is cycle 2 when the bill period is 30 days. This is not billed LTV. This is not first-order media CAC.
Type in the cells. This is a calculator.
| Cycle | Day | Remaining | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 100 | $5,785.00 |
| 1 | 30 | 100 | $6,408.00 |
| 2 | 60 | 75 | $4,806.00 |
| 3 | 90 | 50 | $3,204.00 |
| 4 | 120 | 25 | $1,602.00 |
This page is rebill cash that actually approves. Type first-order margin, remaining cycles after drop-off, and the CAC you can still pay. Day 60 is cycle 2 when the bill is 30 days. Billed remaining cycles are not cash.
MIT vs CIT attempt mix on the book: MIT vs CIT mix. Soft declines on rebill attempts: rebill soft-decline share. Exhausted retry cycles ÷ rebill attempts: rebill-retry exhaust rate. Due day to billed day: campaign rebill lag. MIT fails ÷ MIT attempts: MIT fail share. Involuntary churn before updater measures the hard-fail hole first. Do not paste a vendor bar: involuntary-churn benchmark. Updater lift prices recovered rebills after enrollment — empty until typed. Address-update fails ÷ attempts: address-update fail rate. Cancel reason before save is the gate before any discount. Pause vs skip vs cancel names the MIT outcome. Product swap keeps MIT: swap vs pause. Swap offer attach %: swap attach rate. Winback offer attach %: winback attach. Skip / pause lost contribution: skip vs lost margin. Reactivation offers vs wins vs cost: reactivation win rate. Gift subscription attach %: gift attach rate. Gift subscription skip %: gift skip rate. Pause vs skip path dollars: pause vs skip margin. SKU swap keep vs margin delta: SKU swap margin. Checkout subscription attach: subscription attach. Skips per cancel: skip stack depth. Pauses that cancel ÷ pauses: pause-to-cancel rate. Cancels after frequency change: frequency-change churn. CRM campaign filled ÷ cap: campaign volume cap. SMS keyword is not cancel: STOP vs MIT. Keyword opt-outs inside rebill cohort: opt-out vs rebill. List adds vs keyword opt-outs: list growth vs opt-out. Unreachable share of list: list hygiene rate. SMS link click → CRM order: link click to order. Inbox reads ÷ sends: inbox read rate. Send fails ÷ attempts: send-fail rate. Daily SMS cap vs rebill reminders: SMS cap vs rebill cohort. Omnichannel send fatigue $: channel fatigue cost. Canvas step shown vs taken: Canvas step drop. Canvas exits ÷ entries: Canvas exit rate. Bounces ÷ sends: deliverability bounce rate. Quiet hours mute rebill SMS: quiet hours vs rebill. Undelivered SMS vs rebill cohort: deliverability vs rebill. Short-link fails ÷ clicks: link-shortener fail rate. Keyword optouts ÷ sends: keyword-optout spike. MMS vs SMS send cost: MMS vs SMS cost. Winback flow vs next MIT hour: flow vs rebill clock. SMS vs email rebill lift: SMS vs email rebill. Flow-attributed unsub LTV burn: flow unsub cost. Segment stale vs size: segment stale rate. Expired unused coupons ÷ issued: coupon-expire waste. Profile-merge collisions ÷ merges attempted: profile-merge collision rate. Predictive vs observed cohort LTV: predictive vs actual LTV. Marketing suppress vs CRM active: suppress vs CRM. Unused prepaid dollars: prepaid cancel balance. Expired unused prepaid ÷ sold: prepaid breakage. Rollover unused $ ÷ prepaid sold: prepaid rollover gap. Prepaid take vs classic MIT rebill cash: prepaid vs classic. Booked prepaid ships vs on-hand: prepaid demand. Cancel-save EV prices leftover LTV after that gate.
A failed rebill is not one retry list. Expired, NSF, and do-not-honor are three families. They do not share a calendar.
Dunning is by family
Expired. Wait for account updater. Bill once when a new expiry or PAN comes back. Do not run two weeks of NSF days against a card that already said it was expired.
NSF. The card did not change. The bank said no money. Days 1, 3, 7, and a last try on day 14, on this same merchant account. Updater does not fix NSF.
Do not honor. One retry on day 3 here. Then stop unless this issuer’s file looks like NSF. Opening a “healthier” MID for that fail is a routing job. It is not dunning. It is how you trash a second account.
Pick-up, lost, stolen, and invalid get no calendar. Kill the token. Cancelled recurring gets no calendar. Cancel the MIT.
The family table sits further down. We do not fill a save rate.
Initial vs rebill approval, account updater (hard fails only — not NSF), cancel-save offer EV, and trial → first rebill cash. Trial convert vs refund keep: convert vs refund. Trial start vs paid convert drop: trial-to-paid drop. Upsell attach vs refund: upsell attach vs refund. Campaign upsell take %: campaign upsell take. EPC × refund rate: EPC vs refund rate. Day-N due vs billed drop: rebill-day drop. Day-2 refunds ÷ converts: day-2 refund spike. Those sit further down.
A later bill still has to point at the original shopper-present sale. That chain is The rebill has to point at the original sale.
Pair: Dunning by decline family. Mail vs a live try: update-card email is not a recycle. Email vs SMS recovered $: email vs SMS dunning. Attempts recovered vs exhausted: dunning exhaustion. Paid after retry ÷ bills in retry: dunning recover rate. ACH prenote before first rebill: ACH prenote lag. Club bill day vs capture day: club bill-day drift. Frequency-cap blocked sends: frequency cap miss.
Subscription CAC from surviving cycles
CalculatorFirst-order product margin plus the rebills that remain after drop-off. Day 60 is cycle 2 when the bill period is 30 days. This is not billed LTV. This is not first-order media CAC.
Type starters, convert %, first rebill approval %, and rebill $. We do not fill sample cohorts. Trial convert is not cash.
Type starters, convert %, rebill approval %, and rebill $. Bid against that cash — or do not run trials.
Type trials, converts, and refunds. We invent no convert %.
Type trials, converts, and refunds.
Type attaches, refunds, and AOV. We invent no attach %.
Type attaches, refunds, and AOV.
Type day-N due and billed. We invent no drop %.
Type due and billed.
Type upsell offers and takes. We invent no take %.
Type offers and takes.
Type expired unused $ and prepaid sold $. We invent no breakage %.
Type expired unused $ and prepaid sold $.
Type trials started and paid converts. We invent no drop %.
Type trials started and paid converts.
Type rollover unused $ and prepaid sold $. We invent no rollover %.
Type rollover unused $ and prepaid sold $.
Type day-2 refunds and converts. We invent no spike %.
Type day-2 refunds and converts.
Approval
CalculatorInitial vs rebill. A pretty first sale is not MIT. The rebill must carry the original sale’s ID.
Type shopper-present attempts/approvals and MIT rebill attempts/approvals on this MID. We do not fill a “good” rate.
Type all four counts. A pretty initial rate with a dead rebill path is a continuity lie. Do not dump dead rebills onto a new MID.
Tick a row when it is true on this rebill path. Unchecked is a broken chain. We do not fill gateway field names.
Holes: Original sale was shopper-present, Gateway stored the original receipt, The rebill sends that receipt, Same merchant account, or a written handoff, A replacement card still points at the original, You can look up the original ID on a fail.
Dunning
GuideRetry calendar that does not trash MIDs
NSF gets days. Expired waits for updater. Do-not-honor stays on this MID. We do not fill a save rate.
| Family | Retry calendar | Account updater | MID |
|---|---|---|---|
| Card expired | Do not run the NSF day list. One bill after updater returns a new expiry. | Recovers a new PAN or expiry. That is the job. | Same continuity MID. Do not open a second account to force the old card. |
| NSF / insufficient funds | Day 1, 3, 7, then a last try on day 14. Stop there unless this CRM proves a later save without extra chargebacks. | Does not fix NSF. The card did not change. The bank said no money. | Same MID. Dumping the fail onto a new account is not a retry. |
| Do not honor | One retry on day 3 on the same MID. Then stop unless this issuer’s file shows NSF-like recoveries. | Does not fix do-not-honor. That text is not an expiry. | Same MID. A healthier MID is a routing job, not dunning. |
| Pick-up, lost, stolen, invalid | No calendar. Kill the token the same day. | May later return a replacement PAN. Wait for that. Do not spray the dead card. | Do not send a dead PAN to another merchant account. |
| Stop / cancelled recurring | No retry. Cancel the MIT token. | Does not apply. | Keep the cancel on this MID’s file. |
Type days since last live auth and last “update card” email. We invent no save rate.
Type days since last auth and last email.
Type email recovered $, SMS recovered $, and SMS channel cost. We invent no save rate.
Type email saves, SMS saves, and channel cost.
Type prenote days, cohort $, and rebill day. We invent no prenote.
Type prenote days, cohort $, and rebill day.
Type MIT attempts, CIT attempts, and approvals. We invent no mix %.
Type MIT, CIT, and approvals.
Type attempts, recovered, and exhausted. We invent no recovery %.
Type attempts, recovered, and exhausted.
Type soft declines and rebill attempts. We invent no soft %.
Type soft declines and rebill attempts.
Type undelivered and rebill cohort. We invent no unreachable %.
Type undelivered and rebill cohort.
Type scheduled and actual bill day. We invent no drift.
Type scheduled and actual bill day.
Type MIT fails and MIT attempts. We invent no fail %.
Type MIT fails and MIT attempts.
Type due day, billed day, and due count. We invent no lag days.
Type due day, billed day, and due count.
Type paid after retry and bills in retry. We invent no recover %.
Type paid after retry and bills in retry.
Type exhausted retry cycles and rebill attempts. We invent no exhaust %.
Type exhausted retry cycles and rebill attempts.
Account updater
CalculatorHard fails only. NSF is not updater.
Type rebill attempts, hard fails, and voluntary cancels. We do not fill a vendor recover %. Measure the hole before you credit the updater.
Type attempts, hard fails, and voluntary cancels. Soft NSF is not involuntary here.
Vendor “good” hard-fail rates are not your bar. Filter the claim. Type this MID’s extract. We do not invent an industry percent.
| Claim | Reality | Type / read | Do not |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industry good involuntary churn is X% | No public constant we will fill. Your hard fails ÷ rebill attempts is the bar | Attempts and hard fails on this MID | Invent an industry percent for finance |
| Vendor case-study rate is my boarding bar | No. Case studies are marketing. Boarding needs this extract | Same MID, same window, hard fails only | Paste a slide into the calculator |
| Blend soft NSF into involuntary to match the deck | No. Soft NSF is dunning. Involuntary here is hard fail | Hard-fail count only in the numerator | Dilute the hole to look “good” |
| A low recover % means my involuntary rate is fine | No. Recover is after updater. The hole is measured first | Hole rate, then enroll, then recover from extract | Skip measuring because recover looked pretty |
| Vertical average from another brand applies | No. Ticket, MCC, and rebill cadence differ | Period-over-period on this MID | Chase another brand’s percent |
| This map is the involuntary-churn calculator | No. The calculator types the hole. This map filters benchmark myths | N/A — open the calculator to measure | Skip typing because you rejected the slide |
Type attempts, hard fail %, recover % from this updater, and rebill $. We do not fill a vendor slide. Soft NSF is not the numerator.
Type attempts, hard fail %, recover %, and rebill $. Enrollment is per MID.
Type address-update fails and update attempts. We invent no fail %.
Type address-update fails and update attempts.
Ideas
GuideSave-offer EV vs leftover cash LTV
Three MIT outcomes. Filter the claim. Distinct from cancel-reason gate and save-offer EV.
| Claim | Reality | Do | Do not |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paused still bills on the old cadence | No. Pause means MIT stops until resume | Confirm zero MIT while paused | Label paused while rebills continue |
| Skip and pause are the same product feature | No. Skip jumps one cycle; pause holds until resume | Name which outcome CS offered | Train one macro for both words |
| Every cancel should get a pause first | No. Reason gate first — fraud and dead MIT do not get pause theater | Open cancel-reason-before-save | Pause fraud cancels to “save” them |
| Pause offer uses the cancel-save EV calculator | No. EV prices discount saves. This map is MIT outcome naming | N/A — open cancel-save-offer for discount EV | Invent a pause save-rate chip |
| Cancel always refunds unused cycles automatically | Only if policy says so — cancel stops MIT; refund is a separate credit | Written unused-cycle refund rule | Promise refunds the CRM cannot post |
| Descriptor / MIT still shows after cancel — fine | No. Cancelled-recurring CBs love leftover MIT | Kill or archive the token on cancel | Leave MIT live after “cancelled” |
Type completed swaps, pauses, and cancels. We invent no save rate.
Type swaps, pauses, and cancels.
Type days since STOP and days since last MIT. STOP is not a cancel.
Type days since STOP and last MIT.
Type suppressed and CRM active. We invent no engagement rate.
Type suppressed and CRM active.
Type unused prepaid $ and the written keep $. We invent no cancel save rate.
Type remaining prepaid $ and written keep $.
Type remaining prepaid units and sellable on-hand. We invent no ship day.
Type remaining prepaid units and on-hand.
Capture reason first. Filter the row. EV math comes after — not before.
| Cancel reason | Save offer? | Why | Do not |
|---|---|---|---|
| Too expensive / want discount | Maybe — after EV | Price objection; leftover LTV must clear offer cost | Discount before you log the reason |
| Not using / no value | Maybe — once | Pause or skip-cycle can beat a blind cut | Stack three offers in one call |
| Found competitor | Maybe — measured | Only if save rate exists on this reason | Match a competitor price you cannot fund |
| Fraud / unrecognized charge | No | Alert or CB path — reverse the sale | Offer store credit instead of refund |
| Never received goods | No | Fulfillment hole — refund or fight with scan | Bribe them to stay on an empty ship |
| MIT already hard-failing | No | Card is dead — updater or new PAN first | Discount a token that cannot bill |
| Chargeback already posted | No | Bank already took the money | Stack a save on a lost case |
| Reason refused / blank | No | No reason, no save — log and cancel | Guess a reason to unlock a discount |
Type leftover cash LTV, offer cost, and a measured save rate for this reason. We do not fill a sample rate. Run the reason gate first.
Type leftover LTV, offer cost, and save rate. Capture cancel reason before you price.
Type daily cap, cohort size, and days. We invent no deliverability %.
Type cap, cohort, and days.
Type hours to flow and hours to next MIT. Save % optional. We invent none.
Type hours to flow and hours to rebill.
Type prepaid take $, classic rebill $, and weeks. We invent no mix %.
Type prepaid take, classic rebill, and weeks.
Type quiet start/end, rebill hour, and cohort. We invent no deliverability.
Type quiet hours, rebill hour, and cohort.
Type cohort, opt-outs, and rebill day. We invent no unreachable %.
Type cohort, opt-outs, and rebill day.
Type skips, AOV, and margin %. We invent no skip rate.
Type skips, AOV, and margin %.
Type swaps, keep %, old margin $, and new margin $. We invent no keep %.
Type swaps, keep %, old margin, and new margin.
Type sends, unsubs, and revenue. We invent no unsub rate.
Type sends, unsubs, and revenue.
Type predicted LTV, actual LTV, and cohort size. We invent no gap %.
Type predicted LTV, actual LTV, and cohort.
Type pauses, skips, and margin $ / cycle. We invent no margin.
Type pauses, skips, and margin $.
Type list adds and keyword opt-outs. We invent no growth %.
Type adds and opt-outs.
Type unsubs, LTV $, and sends. We invent no cost.
Type unsubs, LTV $, and sends.
Type segment size and stale count. We invent no stale %.
Type segment size and stale.
Type clicks and CRM orders. We invent no convert %.
Type clicks and orders.
Type skips and cancels. We invent no stack depth.
Type skips and cancels.
Type shown and taken. We invent no drop %.
Type shown and taken.
Type cap and filled. We invent no exhaust %.
Type cap and filled.
Type offers, wins, and offer cost $. We invent no win %.
Type offers, wins, and offer cost $.
Type sub offers and attaches. We invent no attach %.
Type offers and attaches.
Type swap offers and attaches. We invent no attach %.
Type swap offers and attaches.
Type capped sends and planned sends. We invent no miss %.
Type capped and planned sends.
Type winback offers and attaches. We invent no attach %.
Type offers and attaches.
Type unreachable and total list. We invent no hygiene %.
Type unreachable and total list.
Type SMS lift $, email lift $, and cohort. We invent no channel delta.
Type SMS lift $, email lift $, and cohort.
Type frequency changes and cancels. We invent no churn %.
Type frequency changes and cancels.
Type gift offers and attaches. We invent no attach %.
Type gift offers and attaches.
Type MMS/SMS sends and cost $. We invent no delta $.
Type MMS/SMS sends and cost $.
Type gift skips and gift subscriptions. We invent no skip %.
Type gift skips and gift subscriptions.
Type canvas entries and exits. We invent no exit %.
Type canvas entries and exits.
Type short-link fails and clicks. We invent no fail %.
Type short-link fails and clicks.
Type inbox reads and sends. We invent no read %.
Type inbox reads and sends.
Type merge collisions and merges attempted. We invent no collision %.
Type merge collisions and merges attempted.
Type pauses that cancel and pauses. We invent no cancel %.
Type pauses that cancel and pauses.
Type bounces and sends. We invent no bounce %.
Type bounces and sends.
Type keyword optouts and sends. We invent no spike %.
Type keyword optouts and sends.
Type expired unused coupons and coupons issued. We invent no waste %.
Type expired unused coupons and coupons issued.
Type send fails and send attempts. We invent no fail %.
Type send fails and send attempts.
Implementation
Not on this page yetCRM bill cycles, tokens, campaign maps
No calculator on this section yet.
Optimisation
Not on this page yetRecovered cash vs MID damage vs cancel-save cost
No calculator on this section yet.
Projected cash
Not on this page yetNext-30-day rebill that finance can use
No calculator on this section yet.
On Subscriptions: Recovered cash vs MID damage vs cancel-save cost — ops ideas, not branding.