Library · Traffic · How to run this
Open refunds fake the MER
Attribution dashboards show booked revenue while refunds are still open. MER looks fat. Then credits post and last week’s 3.2× was a loan. Lag MER subtracts the refund dollars still inside your window from booked revenue, then divides by the same ad spend. We invent no refund rate.
Pair: Lag-adjusted MER on Traffic. Bid cap from contribution: min ROAS. Refund clocks: refund window.
What you type
Ad spend $ for the window you are reading (same days as the revenue).
Booked revenue $ the dashboard still treats as sold — before those open credits.
Open refund $ still inside the refund / RDR / alert window that will hit this cohort. Type the dollars, not a hope %.
Raw MER = booked ÷ spend. Lag MER = (booked − open refunds) ÷ spend. The gap is refund drag. Bid and kill on lag MER.
If open refunds are not in a report, pull processor refunds-pending plus helpdesk tickets you will credit. Blank is a lie, not zero, unless you truly have none.
What not to do
Do not paste a “category refund rate.” Do not bid on Triple Whale / Northbeam booked MER while the refund window is still open. Do not mix ad-account purchase revenue with processor refunds from another week. Do not treat store credit as a card refund unless it actually reversed the sale you counted.
Related: Traffic, min ROAS, max CAC, refund window, Refunds.
Procedure
- Type spend and booked revenue for the same window.
- Type open refund dollars still inside the window.
- Read lag MER. Bid and kill on that, not raw booked MER.
Failure modes
- Pasting a typical refund rate.
- Bidding on booked dashboard MER while refunds are still open.
- Mixing ad-account purchase revenue with another week’s processor refunds.
Worked example
None on this page yet. When one lands it will be a real case: what broke, the number, and what changed. Not a composite.
Glossary
- Lag MER
- (Booked revenue − open refund dollars still in the window) ÷ ad spend. Booked MER treats those credits as sold.
Work with us — We run this job on your accounts. Services
FAQ
- Is this min ROAS from contribution?
- No. [Min ROAS](/manuals/roas-target) is a bid cap from settled AOV and contribution. This page adjusts MER for refunds that have not posted yet.
- What refund % should I assume?
- None. Type open refund dollars still inside the window. A blended “typical refund rate” is how you invent lag.
- Is platform ROAS the same as MER?
- Related shape (revenue ÷ spend). Platform ROAS often uses billed ads revenue. Type the books you actually bid from.